Airfare to Roatan - buy now or wait?

[CamaroChick]

I know airfare prices are hard to predict, but does anyone know if its better to buy 6 months in advance or wait until closer to the trip? Right now, Continental has BWI to RTB for $699 rt ($769 with taxes), travel dates are 6/7 - 6/14. The 6/14 flight out of Roatan looks at least 1/2 full already.

Seems high, but it is a remote place and there are very limited flights. Is this reasonable, or should I hold out for a better price?

[ReefHound]

I would wait if it was me, but no guarantees so don't hold me responsible if you play the game and lose.

1) most organized groups have reserved their slots so the other half of the plane will fill slowly (my theory), 2) oil has dropped $10/bbl down to $90 in the last few weeks and many analysts predict continuing declines to $70 by end of summer, 3) airlines normally don't start discounting seats until inside 90 days (sometimes they don't need to discount but if they do it won't happen til later), 4) a recession seems imminent and will depress demand.

[whse56]

In other words, spin the wheel and take your chances.

[DollFin]

Fairs from colder to warmer destinations are usually higher if you buy this time of year, even if your travel dates are months away. The airlines count on everyone having cabin fever this time of year.

[ReefHound]

Originally Posted by whse56

In other words, spin the wheel and take your chances.

That's exactly what it is. Let's make this thread an experiment, every few weeks look up the fare and post what you find. Let's see what it does.

[cutter77]

4) a recession seems imminent and will depress demand."
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That's what I've been hearing on various travel blogs too... Could be.......

[CODMAN]

On the other hand, that's not a bad price. And even if prices drop a bit, I don't think they are going to be halved. I guess it depends if you want to play it safe or not. If that flight is sold out, you might get forced to fly TACA to the mainland (San pedro sula), and transfer to Roatan... but I'm sure you'll be able to find a way there...

[wheelman]

You should try Airline tickets, Discount Airfare, Helping you find Cheap Flights At FareCompare You key in the dates of travel to/from info and it gives you the best published rates. If there is historical data it will also show you the best time of year to fly to a given destination. You can also have it send you an email if there is a drop/spike in price as well.

[CamaroChick]

Thanks for the tips - that Fare Compare website is awesome!

[Suther2136]

Try TACA Air and also try making connections. Sometimes the route is worth the lower fare. Bad example but right now Houston to Detroit is about $800, I just booked Houston - Detroit - Cleveland - Richmond - Houston business trip for $550...go figure. Try booking through Miami or Houston and see if the fare goes down. Otherwse it's a crap shoot.