Bush to lift offshore drilling ban

[rumblefish]

Originally Posted by ReefHound

Where would we be? Europe was dealing with $5 gas 20 years ago. So with all that incentive how much progress did they make? Sure their cars average 40mpg to our 25mpg but that's hardly earth shattering. It's not like they are driving around cars that run on water getting an effective 200mpg. It's not like they are lighting their homes with windmills and solar panels.

Now I just want to warn people about short sighted thinking. Technology progresses at a faster pace then we think. Think how far computers have evolved or compare the state of the internet 10 years ago to what it is today. I remember 5 years ago, hybrid cars were a cute little niche product that would never go anywhere. Look at them today. Don't think that just because things are the way they are today, that that's the way it will be tomorrow. 9/11 proved that.

[ReefHound]

Originally Posted by rumblefish

Now I just want to warn people about short sighted thinking. Technology progresses at a faster pace then we think. Think how far computers have evolved or compare the state of the internet 10 years ago to what it is today. I remember 5 years ago, hybrid cars were a cute little niche product that would never go anywhere. Look at them today. Don't think that just because things are the way they are today, that that's the way it will be tomorrow. 9/11 proved that.

Of course not. I'm optimistic about technology but I'm also realistic about changing existing infrastructure. Developing new systems is easier than changing old ones. I grew up when Popular Science was telling us we would all be commuting in little flying cars by the year 2000.

I'm just wondering if fossil-free energy is so solvable then why hasn't anybody else in the world solved it. I understand why we haven't, we've had cheap energy but Europe has had high energy costs for 20 or 30 years. Why are hybrids just now reaching prime time? Why didn't they develop hybrids 20 years ago? Why haven't they solved the battery problems and developed viable electric cars by now?

[georoc01]

Originally Posted by rumblefish

Now I just want to warn people about short sighted thinking. Technology progresses at a faster pace then we think. Think how far computers have evolved or compare the state of the internet 10 years ago to what it is today. I remember 5 years ago, hybrid cars were a cute little niche product that would never go anywhere. Look at them today. Don't think that just because things are the way they are today, that that's the way it will be tomorrow. 9/11 proved that.

Hybrids are still niche products. Even the japanese companies can't ramp up enough and only sell them in select models. Granted they sell more now than they did 5 years ago, but its hardly mainstream. Of everyone I know exactly 1 drives a hybrid.

[captain]

Lets see, I an 64 and can remember back when the prediction was the world would run out of oil by 1990 and the world was headed into another ice age. Every generation has it's chicken littles that run around saying the sky is falling. Last I checked it hasn't fallen.

[MSilvia]

Originally Posted by georoc01

Of everyone I know exactly 1 drives a hybrid.

I know 8 hybrid drivers, and another 10 off the top of my head who drive non-hybrid vehicles that get >30mpg.

[rumblefish]

Originally Posted by georoc01

Hybrids are still niche products. Even the japanese companies can't ramp up enough and only sell them in select models. Granted they sell more now than they did 5 years ago, but its hardly mainstream. Of everyone I know exactly 1 drives a hybrid.

I don't think that hybrids are niche anymore. There's a demand for hybrids, the only thing holding back the proliferation of hybrids is production. If they could put 500,000 on the road tomorrow, I'm sure there wouldn't be any left unsold. That's not a niche product.

As for the running out of oil scare and all that, yes, every few years there's always a scare. Bottom line is, we don't know how much oil is left. The reason why we didn't develop hybrids and solve the battery problems were because people have short memories. After the gas scare, gas became cheap (relatively) again. No reason to develop some far flung, ineffecient electric car when we can just build smaller economy cars. Don't invest in something that's going to take years to develop, put a bandaid on it now with whatever we got. I still remember Reagan cancelling the alternative energies programs. Hey, can you blame him, we had the Russians to worry about back then.

There's always some boogeyman out there that's going to get you.

[aggie99]

Originally Posted by ReefHound

Where would we be? Europe was dealing with $5 gas 20 years ago. So with all that incentive how much progress did they make? Sure their cars average 40mpg to our 25mpg but that's hardly earth shattering. It's not like they are driving around cars that run on water getting an effective 200mpg. It's not like they are lighting their homes with windmills and solar panels.

This is due to taxes, not demand. Any form of fuel that power's vehicles is highly taxed, even bio-fuels.

[aggie99]

Originally Posted by captain

Lets see, I an 64 and can remember back when the prediction was the world would run out of oil by 1990 and the world was headed into another ice age. Every generation has it's chicken littles that run around saying the sky is falling. Last I checked it hasn't fallen.

From what I have read this was mainly due to the advancement of horizontal drilling techniques.

[ReefHound]

Originally Posted by rumblefish

As for the running out of oil scare and all that, yes, every few years there's always a scare. Bottom line is, we don't know how much oil is left. The reason why we didn't develop hybrids and solve the battery problems were because people have short memories. After the gas scare, gas became cheap (relatively) again. No reason to develop some far flung, ineffecient electric car when we can just build smaller economy cars. Don't invest in something that's going to take years to develop, put a bandaid on it now with whatever we got. I still remember Reagan cancelling the alternative energies programs. Hey, can you blame him, we had the Russians to worry about back then.

That explains why *we* didn't aggressively develop alternative energies *here* but it doesn't explain why *nobody* developed them anywhere else. For instance, battery technology is no further along in Europe than it is here.

Hybrids have been out quite a few years. Toyota could have put out 500,000 by converting assembly lines in plants if they wanted to. They are withholding production in the same way and for the same reasons oil companies do - to maintain high prices.

aggie99, *why* Europe has had high gas prices is irrelevant to the point that high prices should have created a consumer demand for alternative energies.

[aggie99]

Originally Posted by ReefHound

aggie99, *why* Europe has had high gas prices is irrelevant to the point that high prices should have created a consumer demand for alternative energies.

Not at all, they tax ALL fuel types so there is currently little incentive to develop a new fuel system if it will be taxed at the same rate as fossil fuel. I was watching a show in England about biofuels and although they got the used vegetable oil free they still had to pay a tax on the biofuel they created. Sadly, after production costs and taxes its cost was only slightly lesser than standard diesel. I am sure this will be reformed but I am sure this is why high fuel costs haven't prompted different fuel technologies up to now. Plus one of the other major reasons for the fuel tax is to make public transit more popular, something we are now seeing here with the fuel cost increases.